A recent global survey reveals that citizens in traditional US ally countries such as the United Kingdom, South Korea, and EU member states have greater doubts about the future of a Trump administration compared to the rest of the world. The survey conducted for the European Council on Foreign Relations and Oxford University’s Europe report shows that US allies in Europe are particularly pessimistic about the future global order under Donald Trump’s leadership. The majority of people in the EU and UK view a second Trump administration as detrimental to American citizens, their own countries, and the resolution of global conflicts. Public opinion of Trump is also notably low in South Korea.
There are concerns in Europe about Trump’s unpredictability on foreign policy, particularly in his approach to NATO and the war in Ukraine. This has led to increasing doubts about whether the US would support its transatlantic allies in the event of a conflict. The EU is divided in its perception of the US president-elect and the relationship the bloc should have with the country. There are fears that Trump’s presidency will not only divide the West but also divide Europe, as evidenced by the differing reactions of various European leaders to Trump. Any attempts by the EU to achieve unity in opposition to Trump could lead to major divisions both between and within member states.
In contrast to the pessimism in Europe, countries such as India, China, and Russia are more optimistic about Trump’s return to the White House. They see it as beneficial for their own countries and for global peace. This optimism is attributed to Trump’s promises to end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, though the report cautions that failure to fulfill these promises could shift public opinion in the future. For example, 82% of respondents in India believe Trump’s presidency will be good for global peace, a sentiment shared by over half of citizens in Saudi Arabia and China.
Divisions over perceptions of the role of the US in the coming years are also reflected in perceptions of which countries will be the main global actors. The study shows that many around the world increasingly view the European Union as a major global power. Most countries, including China, the United States, and Saudi Arabia, see the EU as capable of negotiating on equal terms with other major powers. However, Europeans themselves are the most skeptical of the EU’s influence, with almost half of citizens doubting its ability to negotiate on equal terms with the US or China. These divisions highlight the challenges the EU faces in asserting its influence on the global stage.
Overall, the survey indicates a shift in global perceptions of the United States and the European Union under Trump’s presidency. While traditional US allies in Europe express pessimism about Trump’s leadership and its impact on the global order, countries in Asia and the Middle East are more optimistic about his return to the White House. The divisions in perceptions of the US and the EU as major global powers reflect broader uncertainties about the future of the international political landscape. As the world awaits the outcome of the next US election, these varying perceptions will continue to shape global relations and interactions in the years to come.
