Earlier this week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order lifting most U.S. sanctions on Syria, a move experts believe could help the U.S. regain leverage in the region amid shifting dynamics. This adjustment indicates an administration realization that Syria represents an opportunity to counter Iranian and Islamist influence while supporting regional allies, including Israel and Jordan. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized the significance of this decision, referencing Trump’s recent meeting with Syria’s transitional leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, during a visit to Saudi Arabia. Leavitt framed the lifting of sanctions as part of Trump’s commitment to promote a stable and unified Syria, suggesting it is both a strategic shift and a fulfillment of a political promise.
Historically, U.S. sanctions aimed to cripple Syria’s economy, significantly limiting its viability. Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Schenker, elaborated that while sanctions were effective, they also left the country economically devastated. Trump’s new approach aims to provide Syria a chance to succeed, aligning with national security strategies that prioritize counterterrorism and regional stability. Javed Ali, a former National Security Council official, agrees that a cooperative Syria presents strategic benefits for U.S. interests, notably reducing Iranian proxy presence and promoting cooperation with Arab neighbors.
Syria’s compliance with various U.S. demands—such as permitting inspections by international bodies and sharing intelligence on ISIS—was noted as a critical development by Schenker. He argued that a stable Syria would be less vulnerable to extremist groups like ISIS, thereby enhancing regional security. Ali echoed this, suggesting that Assad’s absence opens pathways for Sunni Arab states to cohesively form against Iranian influences, potentially through frameworks like the Abraham Accords, which could lead to greater stability in the Middle East.
Despite the possibility of improved U.S.-Syrian relations, caution is advised regarding potential complications. Approximately 1,000 U.S. troops remain in Syria, providing vital intelligence and counterterrorism support. Ali warned that deepening ties could lead to fluctuating U.S. military presence, complicating local security dynamics, particularly concerning the management of ISIS detainees. Maintaining this military footprint remains essential, and the potential for requests from Syrian leadership to reduce American involvement highlights the precarious balance in these relations.
Globally, Trump’s move has significant diplomatic implications. Syria’s new leadership has reportedly distanced itself from Iranian influence and has taken steps to dismantle Iranian military posts within the country. This shift aligns with the U.S. vision for a stable Syria that can partake in broader regional agreements, like the Abraham Accords. National Security Council spokesman Taylor Rogers reiterated Trump’s commitment to empowering Syria through sanctions relief while simultaneously maintaining pressure on terrorist groups, framing this as a balanced approach to facilitating Syria’s reconstruction.
Despite these advancements, normalization with Israel presents challenges. Officially, Syria remains at war with Israel, and while al-Sharaa has shown willingness for dialogue, significant opposition from jihadist factions persists. Schenker pointed out the risks involved with al-Sharaa’s attempts at moving towards normalization, highlighting already reported assassination attempts against him. Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute noted that stabilizing Syria could pave the way for broader regional integration, potentially enhancing security for both Israel and Jordan while also decreasing the need for a robust U.S. military presence. Yet, ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory reflect the complicated reality on the ground, suggesting that while diplomatic progress may occur behind closed doors, the situation remains tenuous, requiring cautious optimism moving forward.
