Tuesday’s primary contests in Virginia mark a critical juncture ahead of the general election in November, which is anticipated to serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s performance during his second term. Political experts like Dave Richards, a political science chair at the University of Lynchburg, and Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, underscore that Trump is likely to have a significant impact on the election dynamics. The key candidates are already established, with Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears facing Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger, a former congresswoman.
Winsome Earle-Sears, 61, has an inspiring background; she immigrated to the U.S. from Jamaica at the age of six, served in the Marines, and made history in 2021 as Virginia’s first female lieutenant governor. Her opponent, Abigail Spanberger, 45, also has a distinguished background as a former CIA officer, successfully representing her district in Congress since 2018. The November winner will not only become Virginia’s first female governor but, if Earle-Sears prevails, she will also be the nation’s first Black woman elected as governor.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is ineligible for re-election due to Virginia’s constitutional restrictions, will see his successor emerge from this heated contest. While the GOP has already decided on nominees for lieutenant governor and attorney general, the Democratic primaries will see fierce competition among six candidates vying for a chance to challenge the GOP nominees, including John Reid, the first openly gay lieutenant governor candidate in Virginia’s history. Additionally, two Democrats are competing against incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares.
The influence of Trump permeates the Democratic primaries as candidates rally to combat his administration’s policies. The Democratic Party has witnessed remarkable voter turnout in early voting that preceded the primary, with over 189,000 ballots cast. This enthusiasm demonstrates the party’s motivation to mobilize against Trump’s agenda, notably through policies enacted by his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which experienced notable turbulence under Elon Musk’s leadership. Richards emphasizes that northern Virginia, with its significant federal workforce, has felt a pronounced impact from moves aimed at cutting government spending.
Virginia’s elections take on extra significance this year, shared only with New Jersey, which recently held its primaries. This gubernatorial race is viewed as an early evaluation of Trump’s presidency. The outcomes are also expected to forecast trends for the midterm elections in 2024, during which Republicans will need to defend their control over the House and Senate while also contending with 36 gubernatorial races.
Historically, Republicans achieved success in Virginia’s last election cycle by winning the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general posts for the first time in over a decade. Even though Republicans have not secured the state in presidential elections since 2004, Trump’s narrow loss to Biden in 2020—by only six points—suggests a potential shift in voter sentiment. However, the learnings from historical trends reveal a consistent challenge for the party; since 1977, incumbents have typically lost the subsequent gubernatorial election.
