Democrats have celebrated a victory in the high-profile and historically expensive election in Wisconsin, the first statewide election since President Trump returned to power. While the GOP won congressional seats in Florida, Democrats are highlighting their candidates’ strong performance in Republican-heavy districts. They see these results as indicators of the upcoming midterm elections and referendums on Trump and his controversial decisions. Democrats believe that voters are fed up with Trump’s chaos agenda and are looking for a change in leadership.
In Wisconsin, liberal Judge Susan Crawford defeated conservative Judge Brad Schimel by 10 points, securing a liberal majority in the state Supreme Court. The race became the most expensive judicial election in US history, with heavy spending from outside groups. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has been downsizing the federal government workforce, was heavily involved in supporting Schimel. Democrats view this victory as a rejection of Musk, Trump, and their policies. The DNC sees this as a bellwether race for the 2026 midterm elections.
Despite the losses in Wisconsin, Republicans won comfortably in the Florida congressional elections. Republican candidates secured double-digit victories in districts that Trump won by large margins in the previous presidential election. Democratic candidates significantly outraised their Republican opponents, showing an energized base, but ultimately fell short in the election. GOP-aligned groups poured resources into the races to secure victories and maintain control of the House. Democrats, on the other hand, see these results as a positive sign heading into the 2026 elections.
The elections in Wisconsin and Florida occurred on the eve of Trump’s tariff announcement, sparking a trade war with top trading partners and causing market turmoil. Democrats face challenges with their brand, as polls show their favorable ratings at all-time lows. Activists are frustrated with the party’s inability to halt Trump’s agenda and fear a backlash in the upcoming elections. While special elections can indicate energy and candidate performance, Republicans believe they are not always predictive of future outcomes. Democrats are encouraged by their success in special elections this year but face challenges with defining a vision beyond opposing the White House’s policies.
Republicans see the special elections as a reminder that the party in power often faces political headwinds in off-year elections. Despite victories in previous special elections, the GOP faced challenges in April due to the energy of the Democratic base. Both parties acknowledge the importance of special elections as barometers for future performance but caution against reading too much into the results. Democrats are urged to focus on a clear vision and governing agenda to appeal to a broader base of voters and position themselves within the political mainstream.
