President Donald Trump’s approval rating has recently hit its lowest mark since May 22, as indicated by a poll from the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports. This decline in approval is particularly significant as public perception of the president can heavily influence the unfolding political landscape, particularly with the upcoming midterm elections in November 2026. Democrats are eager to reclaim control over both the House of Representatives and the Senate, which could be swayed by the approval ratings of Trump and his administration.
Rasmussen Reports conducts daily opinion polls involving 300 likely voters, compiling results over a rolling five-day average. This methodology provides nuanced insights into public sentiment, though the latest survey was not conducted on July 4 due to the holiday, with the most recent findings showing a slim approval rate of 49% against a 48% disapproval. The figures revealed a concerning landscape for Trump, who has witnessed fluctuations in support, including a low-point in net approval, reflecting only 36% in strong approval versus 41% in strong disapproval.
Contextualizing these numbers, Trump’s approval rating has seen significant variation in recent months. A stark contrast to his positioning earlier in June when he enjoyed a 52% approval rating, the current numbers present a sobering scenario. Historical data indicates that the last time Trump faced such low approval was also around late May, when public dissatisfaction mirrored these latest results. These statistics underscore the volatility of public opinion and signal potential challenges ahead for Trump as he endeavors to solidify support among various voter demographics.
In a separate analysis, a rival polling firm, Civiqs, indicated that Trump’s approval is net positive in only 21 states out of 50, while he bears a net negative approval in 29 states. These discrepancies highlight a fragmented public perception, adding layers of complexity to the political situation. Furthermore, a national poll by YouGov revealed a troubling net approval of -14 for Trump, with more alarming findings indicating a stark disapproval rating among Gen Z voters, which plunged to -41 percentage points.
Political analysts, such as Dafydd Townley from the University of Portsmouth, are voicing concerns regarding Trump’s recent policy moves, particularly the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which promises tax cuts but might not resonate universally. Townley suggests that any failures or backlash related to this bill could prove harmful to the Republican Party, especially in closely contested districts, potentially swaying the midterm results. The fragile nature of the Republican majority could be at risk if disapproval persists, leading to a landscape characterized by political stalemate.
Against this backdrop, President Trump signed into law his expansive taxation and spending package on July 4, which includes provisions for tax cuts and heightened military funding. While the immediate impacts of this legislative move on his approval ratings remain to be seen, the general sentiment among voters could dictate the success or failure of such policies. The continuously shifting political climate and varying perceptions of Trump’s job performance present a complex narrative that will undoubtedly influence upcoming electoral dynamics in the near future.
