American officials expect Israel to retaliate against Iran for its attack earlier this month before November 5, a move that could potentially impact the American presidential election. The timeline and parameters of Israel’s retaliation have been debated within Israel’s government but are not directly related to the timing of the US election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sensitive to any potential political ramifications of Israel’s actions in the US, as he is described as deeply attuned to American politics.
The conflict in the Middle East has become a significant issue in the American election, with pressures on President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris from progressives and Republicans. The administration has started pressuring Israel to improve humanitarian conditions inside Gaza, with a warning of a military assistance cutoff if aid is not delivered. However, the warning letter came from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, not from Biden or Harris, and the deadline for more aid falls after the election.
The conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty to the weeks leading up to Election Day, creating challenges for the two presidential campaigns. Biden and Harris face potential political setbacks if a wider regional conflict erupts. Netanyahu is aware of how a counterstrike could impact the presidential race, adding complexity to diplomatic relations between the US and Israel. The US has been encouraging a measured reprisal from Israel in response to Iran’s recent missile attack.
The timing and targets of Israel’s forthcoming counterstrike against Iran remain unknown, with US officials closely monitoring the situation. Netanyahu has indicated that Israel does not intend to target Iran’s nuclear or oil sites during this round of retaliation, aligning with Biden’s public encouragement to avoid those targets. The US is prepared for a potential cyber warfare component in Israel’s attacks, as it seeks to prevent a full-fledged war in the Middle East and support Israeli self-defense.
Biden and Netanyahu have had direct conversations about the plans for responding to Iran, with Biden urging a measured response and conveying his views to Israel. Despite tensions between the two leaders, Biden had not previously threatened to condition American assistance on improving humanitarian conditions. Blinken and Austin sent a letter urging urgent action to reverse the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, laying out benchmarks that Israel must meet. While the letter was not signed by Biden, it reflected his previous efforts and communication with Netanyahu.
