US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, have warned against an Israeli invasion of Rafah in Gaza, stating that it would lead to widespread civilian casualties, spark a Hamas insurgency, and create a power vacuum that Hamas would likely fill. President Joe Biden previously stated that an invasion would cause a pause in certain weapons transfers to Israel. Blinken and Sullivan emphasized that American weapons should not be used in what they see as a bloody and ill-advised operation by Israel. While acknowledging Israel’s efforts to minimize civilian harm, Blinken stated that more needs to be done.
Despite warnings dating back months, Israel seems poised to continue advancing on Rafah, with evacuation orders issued for civilians. Blinken warned of dire consequences if Israel proceeds with a ground invasion, including the possibility of inheriting an insurgency or creating a vacuum filled with chaos. Sullivan echoed concerns about significant civilian casualties and the unlikely elimination of Hamas through such an operation. Biden’s decision to halt certain weapons transfers was based on the belief that such an operation would not succeed in defeating Hamas and would cause significant harm.
Sullivan discussed US concerns with his Israeli counterpart, emphasizing Biden’s longstanding worries over a potential military ground operation in Rafah. Blinken noted Israel’s resistance to developing post-war plans for Gaza, stressing the need for security, governance, and rebuilding strategies. The recent State Department report found that US weapons might have been used by Israel in ways inconsistent with international humanitarian law, although it stopped short of formally accusing Israel of violations. Blinken emphasized that they treat Israel like any other country and that making a full determination was challenging amid the ongoing conflict.
Amidst the tensest moment in the US-Israel relationship since October, Blinken downplayed any growing rift between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, stating that they have clear communication and differing views on the best ways to achieve their interests. He emphasized that the relationship is based on speaking the truth and pursuing their respective countries’ interests. Biden’s ultimatum and warnings against an Israeli invasion of Rafah reflect broader concerns about the consequences of such an operation, including civilian casualties, Hamas resurgence, and the need for sustainable plans for post-conflict Gaza. The US continues to engage with Israel on these issues and remains focused on reducing civilian harm and promoting stability in the region.
