The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, initially a revolutionary militia, has evolved into a dominant force within the country’s political and military hierarchy. With its roots tracing back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the IRGC was established to defend the regime’s ideology and to counter perceived threats, particularly from the U.S. and Israel. Over the decades, it has justified its brutal tactics by framing its existence as essential for the survival of the Islamic Republic. However, as Dr. Afshon Ostovar points out, the recent military setbacks experienced by the IRGC may signal a pivotal moment for its survival and influence in Iran and the region.
The IRGC’s initial legitimacy stemmed from the revolutionary fervor that overthrew the Shah. It not only emerged as a counterbalance to Iran’s traditional military, which was loyal to the former monarch, but also grew under the pretext of maintaining revolutionary ideals. According to Behnam Ben Taleblu, this military body has functioned to enforce state edicts and has expanded its operations to intimidate opposition and execute regional policies through proxy groups. The IRGC’s narrative relied on demonizing foreign adversaries, particularly the U.S. and Israel, to sustain control over the Iranian populace. However, Ostovar notes that the resonance of this ideology has diminished among ordinary Iranians, many of whom seek improved relations with the West and resent the regime’s isolationist policies.
In recent years, the IRGC has faced significant military challenges. The effectiveness of its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, has waned due to various geopolitical shifts and military operations from Israel and the U.S. These defeats have forced the IRGC to reassess its strategies and may limit its ability to project power outward. Ostovar suggests that, instead of rebuilding its regional influence, the IRGC might increasingly resort to internal repression while seeking alliances with nations like China and Russia for conventional military capabilities. This transition marks a critical juncture in how the Corps operates, both domestically and regionally.
Internally, the IRGC has been grappling with economic challenges exacerbated by international sanctions and cyberattacks. These factors have constrained its financial resources and hindered its operational capabilities. Ostovar highlights that the IRGC now relies on front companies to conduct business, as foreign banks avoid interactions that could potentially involve the Corps. The organization, previously flush with resources, now finds itself stretched thin, struggling to fulfill both its military and domestic obligations. The loss of prestige and resources may lead the IRGC to tighten its grip on the Iranian populace in an effort to maintain control.
Despite these pressures, both Ostovar and Taleblu assert that the IRGC will likely maintain its loyalty to the current regime. The organization’s leadership remains ideologically committed to the tenets of the revolution, even as its strategic aims face existential threats. There is caution among experts regarding the possibility of an internal coup, as the IRGC’s elite have significant material interests intertwined with the regime. Looking ahead, the IRGC may focus on domestic repression instead of international aggression, as it has lost many of its external avenues for expansion and influence.
Potential shifts in Iran’s future could arise from generational changes within the IRGC. The younger cadre, while less religiously motivated, are entrenched in the historical narrative of fighting foreign adversaries. Ostovar notes a divergence among some reformist elements within the regime, who seek to open up relations with the West, contrasting with hardline factions that oppose any form of engagement. Nevertheless, the overarching influence of the IRGC appears resilient. As Taleblu warns, the Guards enjoy substantial power without accountability, allowing them to shape Iranian policy moving forward. The trajectory of the IRGC remains uncertain, but its profound impact on the Iranian state continues to be of paramount significance.
