Astronomers recently discovered a near-Earth asteroid named 2024 YR4, which has a roughly 1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Despite this concerning news, space agencies are closely monitoring the asteroid to gather more information. The European Space Agency and NASA have placed 2024 YR4 at the top of their asteroid risk lists, indicating its potential impact hazard. The asteroid is rated at a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, suggesting that attention should be paid to it since the potential impact date is less than a decade away.
2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, making it smaller than a “planet killer” asteroid, but still capable of causing severe damage to a local region upon impact. Current data shows that 2024 YR4 is the only known large asteroid with an impact probability above 1%, highlighting the importance of continued observation and study. While there is a roughly 1% chance of impact, there is also a strong 99% chance that the asteroid will not collide with Earth, which provides some reassurance amidst the uncertainty.
Space agencies and organizations are working together to track the asteroid’s trajectory and size more accurately. The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth, but further observations using the Very Large Telescope in Chile are planned to gather more data. Although there is a possibility that 2024 YR4 may fade from view before more concrete information is obtained, efforts will continue to keep track of it until it becomes observable again in 2028. If the asteroid turns out to be a serious threat, a spacecraft-based response may be explored to deflect its path.
In the past, planetary defense options such as NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test mission have successfully redirected asteroids by colliding spacecraft with them. This demonstrates that there are strategies in place in case of a dangerous asteroid threat. With ongoing observations and data collection, it is hoped that more information will emerge in the coming months about 2024 YR4. In the best-case scenario, the asteroid may be downgraded from a potential threat to a non-concern, alleviating fears of a catastrophic impact in 2032. While the situation is concerning, it is important not to panic but rather to stay informed and vigilant as more information is gathered.
