Democrats are hoping for an upset victory in special elections being held in Florida’s First and Sixth Congressional Districts, which are traditionally heavily Republican. President Trump won these districts by wide margins in the 2020 election. However, special elections tend to be more favorable for Democrats, who have seen success in state legislative special elections earlier this year. Recent polls have shown a closer race than expected in the Sixth District, raising Democrats’ hopes for a possible win.
The partisan split of the voters who have cast ballots in both Florida special House races is being tracked to determine which party may have an advantage. While data on voter turnout can be helpful, it does not guarantee a victory as some voters may not necessarily vote along party lines. The split includes early turnout, which consists of voters who returned mail ballots or voted early in person, and Election Day turnout, which will occur on Tuesday. Partisanship can vary between those who vote early and those who vote on Election Day, with early voters typically leaning more Democratic.
Florida’s First Congressional District, previously represented by Matt Gaetz who resigned after being re-elected, features Democrat Gay Valimont and Republican Jimmy Patronis on the ballot. The district saw controversy when Mr. Gaetz was nominated for attorney general by Mr. Trump, only to withdraw himself from consideration. In the Sixth Congressional District, vacated by Michael Waltz who was selected by President Trump as his national security adviser, Democrat Joshua Weil and Republican Randy Fine are running for the open seat. Mr. Waltz recently made headlines for including an Atlantic editor in a Signal chat discussing sensitive military plans.
Turnout and results from the 2024 presidential election in these districts are being monitored for early and Election Day voters to provide context for the special elections. Polls in the special elections will close at 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, and the outcome will determine whether Democrats can make gains in the House and potentially erode the GOP’s narrow majority. The tracking of voter turnout and the competitiveness of these races will offer insights into the political landscape ahead of the midterm elections. Data analysis is being conducted to analyze the trends and potential outcomes in these high-stakes special elections in Florida.
