In 2024, Italy, Portugal, and Bulgaria had the highest population shares of over-65s in the European Union, with over one-fifth of the EU population falling into this age category. This trend is expected to continue in the coming decades, with an upward trajectory in aging populations due to increased longevity and low fertility rates. This demographic shift can place a burden on the working-age population to provide for the social expenditure required by the aging population. Across the EU countries, there was a variation in the share of over-65s, with Italy, Portugal, Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, and Croatia having the highest percentages, while Luxembourg and Ireland had the lowest shares. The EU population was estimated at 449.3 million people in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year and a 2.9% rise over the past decade.
Children between 0 and 14 years old accounted for nearly 15% of the EU’s population, while those considered to be of working age made up over 60%. The highest population shares of children were observed in Ireland, Sweden, and France, while Italy, Malta, and Portugal recorded the lowest shares. The median age across the EU countries ranged from 39.4 years in Ireland to 48.7 years in Italy in 2024, with an overall increase of 2.2 years between 2014 and 2024. There was a significant surge in median age by 4 years in countries such as Italy, Slovakia, Greece, and Portugal, while Germany and Malta experienced a slight decline. By 2100, the EU’s population is projected to peak at 453.3 million people around 2026 before gradually declining to 419.5 million. The median age is expected to increase by 5.5 years, reaching 50.2 years, and the proportion of individuals aged 80 or above is set to increase by 2.5-fold from 6.1% to 15.3%.
As the EU’s population continues to age, there will be implications for social services and support systems, as the proportion of older individuals increases and the working-age population is tasked with meeting the needs of this growing demographic. This shift in demographics will require adjustments in pension systems, healthcare services, and other support networks to accommodate the needs of a larger elderly population. While some countries experience an increase in median age, others may see fluctuations or declines, reflecting the diverse demographic trends across the EU. It is essential for policymakers to anticipate these changes and plan for the future to ensure the sustainability of social programs and services amid an aging population.
The demographic landscape of the EU is expected to evolve significantly by 2100, with a projected decline in population from its peak in the mid-2020s. This decline will be accompanied by a substantial increase in the median age, reflecting the aging population of the region. The proportion of individuals aged 80 or above is set to more than double by 2100, highlighting the longevity trends and the challenges this poses for healthcare and social services. It is crucial for policymakers to address these demographic shifts proactively, considering the implications for healthcare, social security, and workforce participation to ensure the well-being and sustainability of the EU population in the coming decades. By understanding and preparing for these demographic changes, the EU can effectively navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by an aging population.
