Nate Silver, a prominent statistician and political analyst, presents a detailed analysis of President Donald Trump’s approval ratings throughout distinct phases of his presidency. Published on his Substack blog, the Silver Bulletin, this analysis outlines four significant periods, each characterized by varying levels of public support for Trump. Understanding these fluctuations is crucial, as they reflect broader sentiments within the nation and can potentially influence Trump’s policy decisions, particularly in the lead-up to the midterm elections scheduled for 2026.
The first period, spanning from January 21 to April 29, exhibited a notable decline in Trump’s approval. Silver points to the announcement of Trump’s tariff policy in April as a pivotal moment that contributed to this dip, marking the lowest point for the president’s popularity during this timeframe. This phase signifies the initial backlash from certain voter segments, revealing vulnerabilities in the administration’s early policy strategies.
Conversely, the second phase, occurring between April 30 and June 10, reflects a resurgence in Trump’s approval ratings. Silver notes a gradual increase in popularity, which culminated in a net approval rating of -3.5 percentage points by June 10. This rebound can be attributed to various factors, including economic developments and potential shifts in public perception, which allowed Trump to regain some favor among constituents during a critical stage of his presidency.
In the third phase—from June 11 to July 10—Silver indicates a gradual decline in Trump’s net approval rating once again, which ended up at around -7 percentage points. This fluctuation suggests a volatility in public opinion that could stem from ongoing national issues and Trump’s response to them. Despite this decline, the ratings remained higher than the initial phase, indicating lingering support among some demographics.
The final period extends from July 11 to the present day, during which Trump’s approval ratings have seen minimal change, stabilizing between -6 and -10 percentage points. As of September 14, his net approval rating stood at -7.6, a slight improvement from where he was during the same time in his first term, when the rating was around -15 percentage points. Notably, Trump is also positioned slightly ahead of President Joe Biden’s comparable ratings, which were at -16 percentage points.
Amidst declining poll numbers, Trump maintains a narrative of popularity, claiming, through a post on Truth Social, that he enjoys some of the highest poll numbers recorded, countering the reality reflected in major polls. For instance, a recent Quinnipiac poll showed Trump with a 37 percent approval rating against a disapproval rating of 55 percent, hitting a new low for his second term. This discrepancy between Trump’s public assertions and the polling data underscores the complicated dynamics of political perception and reality.
Looking ahead, Trump’s popularity is expected to continue its rollercoaster trajectory as his presidency unfolds. With the midterm elections set for November 2026, it remains essential to monitor the evolving public sentiment towards him. The connection between approval ratings and electoral outcomes emphasizes the importance of understanding these trends as Trump’s administration navigates ongoing challenges and public expectations.
