A significant survey by the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) reveals a strong consensus among Europeans in favor of increasing national defense spending, despite widespread skepticism about achieving autonomy from U.S. defense support by the end of the decade. Of over 16,400 respondents from 12 countries, majorities from Poland, Denmark, the UK, Estonia, and Portugal expressed support for higher defense budgets. Furthermore, substantial pluralities in nations like Romania, Spain, France, Hungary, Germany, and Switzerland also favored increased spending. Italy stands out as the only nation where more respondents (57%) opposed escalating defense expenditures, showcasing a notable divergence in national attitudes.
Despite this willingness to increase spending, many Europeans doubt the feasibility of achieving complete security independence from the United States within the next five years. Only majorities in Denmark and Portugal feel optimistic about this goal, while a majority in Italy and Hungary consider such autonomy virtually impossible. In contrast, sentiments in Poland, Estonia, and Spain lean towards skepticism. The German population appears divided on the topic, showing almost equal support for and against the perceived viability of EU defense autonomy, with 44% optimistic and 45% pessimistic.
Support for Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia remains robust across the surveyed countries, largely independent of U.S. aid. In fact, majorities or pluralities in 11 of the 12 nations disfavor withdrawing military support for Ukraine or pressing it to concede territory to Russia, regardless of the U.S. government stance. This reflects a strong commitment across Europe towards military support for Ukraine, underscoring the importance of collective European values over reliance on U.S. policy shifts.
The influence of political figures, particularly Donald Trump, emerges as a critical factor affecting transatlantic relations. Many respondents perceive Trump’s return to the White House and his provocative rhetoric as detrimental to the EU-U.S. relationship. While a majority view the relationship as repairable post-Trump, the looming NATO summit adds urgency to the discussions surrounding defense spending. Trump has advocated for a significant increase in NATO defense spending targets, with contentious proposals stirring debate among member states regarding feasibility and economic prudence.
Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has publicly pushed back against proposed spending increases, arguing that unrealistic targets could undermine Spain’s optimal defense spending and harm the EU’s collective defense efforts. Interestingly, respondents from Spain exhibit greater concern over inadequate defense expenditure than over overspending at the cost of other public services, indicating a growing recognition of the urgency of enhancing national defense capabilities amid geopolitical tensions.
In response to these challenges, the EU has launched initiatives aimed at bolstering defense production and deployment. They plan for an investment of €800 billion into defense over the next four years, incentivizing member states to align spending with security needs by relaxing fiscal constraints. The EU Commission’s support in facilitating access to funds and providing preferential loans could encourage increased investment in defense, establishing the sector as a priority in forthcoming discussions, particularly at the forthcoming summit of EU leaders. This multi-faceted approach aims to strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities and enhance collective security, reflecting the evolving geopolitical landscape.
