Russia and Ukraine have expressed their commitment to ceasing fighting in the Black Sea, but there are still obstacles to overcome before an agreement can be put into effect. Russia has stipulated that it will adhere to the deal only after certain restrictions on its agricultural exports are lifted, a process that may be difficult to achieve given that the penalties were imposed by the United States and the European Union. The two countries seem to have different understandings of the agreement brokered by the U.S., with Russia viewing it as a way to revive a previous U.N.-backed deal granting it some control over commercial shipping through the sea, while Ukraine remains firm that it will not allow the Russian Navy back into the western Black Sea.
There is evident mistrust between Russia and Ukraine, as each side has accused the other of breaching the truce. Ukraine reported an attack on its port city of Mykolaiv, while Moscow claims to have shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea. Russia’s conditional acceptance of the cease-fire deal reveals that it is in no rush to end the conflict, especially with a favorable U.S. administration and an advantageous position on the battlefield. The Kremlin’s terms include the reconnection of its state agriculture bank to the international payment system Swift, along with the restoration of deliveries of agricultural equipment and the removal of sanctions against Russian companies involved in the food and fertilizer trade.
On the other hand, Ukraine is complying with the maritime cease-fire but remains wary of Russia’s intentions. President Zelensky expressed concern that Russia’s demand for lifting sanctions represents an attempt to distort the agreements, while also criticizing the U.S. for supporting Russian agricultural exports. It is unclear how Ukraine stands to benefit from the deal, particularly as the White House did not guarantee protection for Ukrainian ports against Russian attacks or the reopening of specific ports that Ukraine had been advocating for during negotiations.
The future of the conflict remains uncertain, with both countries committing to a 30-day moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure. While Ukraine has been pushing for an immediate cease-fire, it is clear that further technical consultations are necessary to implement the energy and maritime agreements effectively. The recent developments highlight how Moscow appears willing to engage in negotiations without making significant concessions, emphasizing the complexity of achieving a lasting peace in the region.
